By Marco Santarelli

Is 2019 a good time to buy a home, sell a home, move up, or invest in real estate — or will you be better off parking your money elsewhere, whether that means buying a house in a different location or an investment in an entirely different industry? While no one knows exactly what will happen with home prices in 2019, if you have the right sources and know where to look, there is enough evidence to make a sound educated guess. Where will we see softening housing trends first, and which cities are still showing healthy growth? We examined all 381 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US for local affordability (and change in affordability), housing market price growth, and the pace of housing market price growth to pinpoint where the housing market is slowing down.

While we are still seeing a positive housing trends in growth on average, the explosive acceleration we’ve seen over the past few years is clearly softening, market by market. US housing markets that have been headlining the recent growth cycle are decelerating dramatically, bringing their growth more closely inline with historically stable MSAs. Of the 25 housing markets that show the most marked growth deceleration, 10 are in Florida — and the list includes presumed stars like San Francisco, San Jose, Portland real estate market, and even Denver real estate market.

The accelerating markets are few, and they tend to be smaller, historically affordable areas where the pace of market growth has been slower. And, in between, we find the middle range of comparatively stable MSAs, generally marked by challenging job markets and static local economies.

Some notable surprises are the New York metro area, which continues to accelerate (albeit by 0.09 percentage points), and the Seattle real estate market, whose growth we expect to decelerate by 2 percentage points to 12% this year. What’s causing slowing growth in the housing market? There are dozens of factors in play, but the ones that with the biggest impact during the next few months include:

Finally, our analysis within individual metros found more pronounced softening in the luxury segment in several markets, typical of mid-to-late cycle behavior where exceedingly high prices in most desirable areas drive buyers further out in search of relative affordability. Few regions are immune, with luxury softening everywhere from Dallas, Fort Worth, and Chicago to Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Florida markets like the Miami housing market and Tampa housing market.

Despite the recent Fed hike, purchasing a turnkey home is still a good call in today's low-interest environment. As of January 2017, the interest rate for a 30-year conventional fixed rate mortgage is 4.25% with an APR of 4.323%. For a 20-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage the average interest rate is 4.125% with an APR of 4.225%. And for a 10-year fixed rate mortgage, the average interest rate is 3.625% with an APR of 3.751%. (Based on figures from usbank.com)

While it may sound like a great way to bring in some extra revenue, it’s important to realize that real estate investing isn’t for everyone. There’s always the threat of some unforeseen calamity, from a sudden property tax hike to chronic maintenance issues to accidents (fire, falling trees, etc.). Buyers should have the nerve – not to mention the extra cash – to deal with these surprises.

Experienced investors also say it’s important to view turnkey properties as a long-term undertaking. Unlike stocks and other relatively liquid investments, homes can take a while to sell. So if owning a rental isn’t something you can commit to for years, it’s probably not worth getting involved in the first place.

Turnkey properties are an interesting alternative for people without the time to physically renovate or maintain a real estate investment. To be sure, investing in real estate is never a risk-free endeavor. But these properties can be an attractive option for those looking to diversify their assets without encountering the day-to-day hassles of being a landlord.

Investors pay a premium to acquire homes in move-in condition, so their potential returns aren’t as high as those for folks who flip older unit themselves. They also have to pay someone to manage the property, which further cuts into the bottom line. Even so, some of the more successful turnkey buyers can generate profits in excess of 10%.